NOK

TIER 2 · 4%RESEARCH PENDING

NokiaPhotonics / OpticalXETRA

Key Metrics

Mkt Cap$48B
Fwd P/E24.1x
Gross Margin43.5%
D/E0.21
Rev Growth+3.5%
Customer RiskLow

Supply Chain Position

Only vertically integrated Western InP semiconductor fab (ex-Infinera). $1B NVIDIA strategic investment. San Jose + Bethlehem fabs (CHIPS Act).

Why Included

Western alternative to Asian InP supply. NVIDIA’s $1B investment validates the thesis. ICE-D intra-DC optics platform. €3.4B net cash. D/E 0.21. Also a Taiwan contingency hedge.

Customers: Diversified across telecom and data centre customers. No single-customer risk.

Red Flags

  • Stock already +8% above analyst consensus — limited near-term upside vs consensus
  • Traditional telco business is mature/declining — InP optics story is still emerging
  • Revenue growth is only +3.5% — need to see DC optics segment accelerate
  • Infinera integration execution risk

Citrini Research Note

Citrini weight: 9%. Portfolio at 4.5%. InP fab story is compelling but keeping moderate size.