ASML

TIER 1 · 7%RESEARCH PENDING

ASML Holdings • Semi Equipment & Testing • Euronext Amsterdam

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External Research

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Key Metrics

Mkt Cap$532B
Fwd P/E40.8x
Gross Margin52.8%
D/E0.14
Rev Growth+15.6%
Customer RiskMedium

Supply Chain Position

Permanent EUV lithography monopoly. No ASML = no advanced chips, period.

Why Included

The ultimate picks-and-shovels position. €40B backlog, D/E 0.14, €12B FCF. 1-2 hops from literally everything in the existing AI industry portfolio. Premium valuation is the cost of a permanent monopoly.

Customers: TSMC ~35%, Samsung, Intel. Concentrated in 3 customers but they ARE the industry.

Red Flags

  • •Premium valuation (40.8x forward) — any earnings miss punished severely
  • •Chinese export restrictions reduce addressable market
  • •Intel fab struggles could reduce one of three major customers

Citrini Research Note

Not in Citrini basket (too obvious/mega-cap). Added because it's the permanent monopoly underpinning the entire chain.